With the breakdown of trade negotiations between Ottawa and Washington, a former Mexican trade negotiator suggests that the U.S. may aggressively pursue a deal with Mexico. Kenneth Smith Ramos, Mexico’s former chief technical negotiator for the 2017-2019 Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) talks, predicts that the U.S. might aim to strike a preliminary agreement with Mexico soon and delay resolving contentious issues until later, such as imposing restrictions on Mexican agricultural exports.
Smith Ramos anticipates that the U.S. could announce a framework agreement with Mexico in the near future, similar to its approach with the European Union, due to political motivations.
Both Canada and Mexico have been separately engaging with the U.S. to address trade disputes before entering trilateral discussions regarding CUSMA amendments.
Following the breakdown of talks between Canada and the U.S. on August 21, where last-minute demands were introduced by the U.S. on culture, autos, and sovereignty, negotiations have stalled. Canada has retaliated by implementing counter-tariffs on various U.S. imports, suspending trilateral CUSMA talks for the time being.
The U.S. decided not to extend the CUSMA agreement on July 1, opting to renegotiate terms instead of an extension, contrary to Canada and Mexico’s preference for extension.
Mexico’s Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, emphasized the need for resolving tensions between Canada and the U.S. to benefit Mexico and the North American region as a whole, stressing the importance of finding common ground.
The trade dispute has led to a delay in trilateral CUSMA talks, casting uncertainty on the future of the agreement and the imposition of tariffs.
The Mexican government is cautiously navigating its trade discussions with the U.S. amid the ongoing disputes with Canada to avoid complicating the dialogue.
Experts suggest that the current negotiations signal a shift away from traditional free trade agreements towards more focused tariff negotiations, potentially leading to separate bilateral agreements between countries.
Amid the uncertainties, Mexico and Canada are urged to strengthen their bilateral trade relations outside the shadow of the U.S. influence to foster a more robust partnership.