Three major Canadian banks expressed positive views on the economy, in contrast to the concerns of numerous small businesses dealing with the impact of a trade war with the United States. Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, and CIBC released their financial results on Thursday, highlighting their substantial assets totaling up to $6 trillion. These banking giants, with extensive portfolios and client networks in Canada and the U.S., have a unique perspective on monitoring the effects of tariffs.
RBC CEO Dave McKay noted the resilience of the Canadian economy, citing improvements in employment and GDP in Q2. He maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook on future expansion despite ongoing trade uncertainties. TD Bank CEO Raymond Chun mentioned an emerging “super cycle” of investment in Canada, driven by government spending on infrastructure and national defense projects. CIBC CEO Harry Culham expressed measured confidence about the latter half of 2026 and emphasized the importance of monitoring the labor market for potential weaknesses.
According to a recent study by Oxford Economics for the Canadian American Business Council, over 100,000 Canadian jobs could be at risk if the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement is eliminated. BMO Capital Markets predicted that the latest U.S. tariffs could reduce Canadian growth by half a percentage point, mainly affecting business confidence and investment.
The CEOs of National Bank, Bank of Montreal, and Scotiabank also acknowledged the strength of Canada’s economy and government initiatives to support businesses impacted by tariffs. Despite trade tensions, the Toronto Stock Exchange saw Canadian bank shares trading near record highs, with the BMO Equal Weight Banks Index ETF surging almost 50% in the past year.