Key details from the Budget have been revealed prematurely, ahead of Rachel Reeves’ scheduled delivery of the financial statement to the Commons. The Chancellor, who was observed checking her phone during Prime Minister’s Questions, was set to present the Budget to MPs at 12:30pm. However, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) unintentionally published its economic and fiscal report, disclosing major Budget measures before Reeves’ speech.
Reacting to the leak, an outraged Rachel Reeves characterized it as “deeply disappointing” and a significant mistake on the part of the OBR. She emphasized to MPs that the breach was their responsibility, a point the OBR has acknowledged. The leaked document confirmed various Budget measures, such as £26 billion in tax increases overall and the elimination of the two-child benefit limit. Subsequently, the OBR issued an apology for a “technical error” that led to the inadvertent release and initiated an investigation into the incident.
According to the leaked document, the Budget is projected to raise taxes by up to £26 billion by 2030-31. This will involve extending the freeze on personal tax thresholds for an additional three years until 2030-31, despite concerns raised by Reeves about its impact on working individuals. Additionally, the document disclosed the removal of the two-child benefit limit starting in April next year, costing £2.3 billion in 2026-27 and £3 billion in 2029-30.
The OBR revised its economic growth forecast for this year from 1% to 1.5% but downgraded projections for the subsequent four years. Reeves had previously cautioned against extending the freeze on income thresholds, highlighting the potential adverse effects on workers. While the Labour Party pledged not to increase taxes on working people in its manifesto, the freeze on income tax thresholds could result in individuals being pushed into higher tax brackets.
During Prime Minister’s Questions, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch described the OBR leak as unprecedented. Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey also pressed the PM on the tax rises detailed in the OBR document.
In a statement, the OBR acknowledged the premature release of its economic and fiscal outlook document on their website and expressed regret for the technical error. They assured an investigation into the incident and committed to preventing similar occurrences in the future. The full economic and fiscal outlook, along with supporting documents, will be disclosed following the completion of the Chancellor’s speech.