To all appearances, Russia perceives itself as being in a state of conflict with NATO allies. While this has not yet turned into direct military engagement, the Kremlin is actively allocating resources and personnel to carry out probing attacks on NATO defenses, identifying weaknesses and boundaries.
In a quasi-war on European soil, Russia has been implicated in various acts of subversion, including sabotage on Polish railways, attempts to disrupt Baltic Sea undersea cables, and an increasingly bold GRU-led campaign to disrupt NATO’s support systems for Ukraine. The primary goals for the Kremlin are to escalate costs for NATO’s backing of Ukraine, disrupt supply chains temporarily, and sow discord in Western nations.
Despite these actions, Russia has not crossed any threshold that would trigger a military response from NATO. By using third-party proxies, often recruited through social media, Russia maintains a level of plausible deniability and flexibility that complicates attribution.
However, the sabotage attacks lack comprehensive coordination across Europe and do not consistently correspond to the level of support each country provides to Ukraine. While Germany, France, and Poland have faced significant physical attacks due to their aid to Ukraine, the UK, despite its substantial military and economic assistance, has experienced fewer direct assaults.
Defense Secretary John Healey highlighted today that this discrepancy may not accurately reflect Russia’s intelligence interests in the UK. Russia invests considerable intelligence resources in monitoring the UK, as evidenced by recent activities like the Yantar surveillance vessel incursion into British waters.
Following the expulsion of hundreds of diplomats in 2022, Russia’s intelligence networks in Europe were disrupted, leading to a reliance on local proxies, which poses its own challenges. Despite the current limitations, Russia is expected to adapt and improve its tactics, posing a continued risk to non-military targets in Europe, including the UK.