In the previous federal election, Quebec experienced a unique turn of events where discussions shifted from protecting the province’s interests to safeguarding Canada against threats and rhetoric from Donald Trump regarding potential tariffs and integration as the 51st state. On election day, Mark Carney’s Liberal party seized on this sentiment, achieving their best outcome in Quebec in decades and overshadowing the Bloc Québécois.
As the provincial election commences, there is speculation about the potential impact of the U.S. president once more. The focus leading up to the campaign launch was dominated by the recently imposed tariffs, compelling party leaders to demonstrate their capabilities in shielding the province from economic repercussions.
Economic uncertainty has emerged as a crucial factor for voters, replacing previous concerns about healthcare, housing, and the cost of living according to pre-trade war polls. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) faces challenges after two terms in power and amidst a dissatisfied electorate, with economic stability becoming a key priority for voters.
Quebec is forecasted to be significantly affected by the new tariffs due to its heavy reliance on automotive, metals, and manufacturing exports, as per a report by Oxford Economics. The leading Parti Québécois (PQ) candidate, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, confirmed a referendum delay until the end of Trump’s second term, emphasizing the election’s focus on Quebec’s future.
The CAQ, led by Christine Fréchette, aims to replicate Mark Carney’s success by addressing the upheaval caused by the tariffs. However, comparisons highlight differences in their respective impacts on their parties’ standings. Fréchette’s opponents are challenging her ability to navigate the current situation effectively, with alternative proposals from other party leaders to address the challenges posed by the tariffs.
Parties in the election have put forward various strategies to address the economic uncertainties, such as Quebec Solidaire’s proposed “Trump provision” and the Conservatives’ pledges for spending cuts and tax relief. The leader who can reassure the electorate with a steady approach amid the uncertainties brought by Trump and the tariffs is likely to gain an advantage, although the race remains unpredictable.